Adding 'Dental into Medicare' is good politics (Part 1)
It will help the ALP win the next election
Federal Labor should take 2-3 main ideas to the next election that are popular, easily understood, improve people's lives and are aligned with Labor values (fairness, equality).
Adding 'Dental to Medicare' is one such idea.
For now, assume that we're talking about a policy where all Australians can receive 90%+ of dental treatments using their Medicare card and paying $0 out of pocket.
It will appeal to Greens voters (useful for close seats such as Griffith, Macnamara, Richmond, Brisbane)
In researching for this article, I was surprised to see how close some of the Greens/Labor seats were.
I knew they were close but didn’t realise they were this close.
The table below shows the number of votes you would need to flip from preferencing the Greens to Labor (or vice versa) to have changed the result in 2022.
* This is the number of votes of people you would need to flip who preferenced both Labor and the Greens ahead of the Coalition. To change the results by flipping Coalition voters to Labor you would need a larger number of votes.
Given these razor thin margins, adopting a policy such as adding Dental to Medicare could be the difference between gaining or losing 2 seats in the next election (for a net difference of 4 seats).
In the last election, If only 1,600 voters across Richmond and Macnamara had voted for the Greens instead of Labor, Labor would not have a majority in the House.
It’s worth reflecting on comments made by Greens campaign manager Liam Flenady on what led to their success in Griffith in 2022.
A lot of the votes we won were on things that would materially improve voters’ lives in a direct way. Amid the malaise of politics, a lot of people also just wanted change and hope.
The call for a federal Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) and political integrity more generally played a very small role in the swing to the Greens in Griffith.
It rarely came up while door-knocking and we did not campaign on it…
…Personally, I feel an ICAC would not change much for a single mother in social housing or a young couple trying to find a rental.
Source: Article
Adding ‘Dental into Medicare’ is a policy that will materially improve voters’ lives and so it is smart to adopt a policy that will win you votes in these key electorates.
It will appeal to lower income and outer metro voters who are trending away from Labor
Internationally we have seen a decline in the trust people have in institutions over the past 4 decades.
In Australia, we have seen a decline in the first preferences received by the major parties and an increase in the votes going to independents or minor parties.
Source: 2019 Election analysis by the Grattan Institute
And in 2019, the Labor party saw a swing against it by lower income voters and those further from the CBD in each state.
Source: 2019 Election analysis by the Grattan Institute
Source: 2019 Election analysis by the Grattan Institute
How can the Labor party win back their vote?
By offering them something that will materially benefit their lives.
These voters don’t have much affinity toward any political party and want to vote for someone or something that will improve their life in some way.
I haven’t seen any Australian polling on this issue but polling in the U.S from Data for Progress suggests that 83% of voters support expanding Medicare to cover hearing, vision, and dental care.
Medicare in the U.S is a little bit different (it’s a policy that only provides health insurance to those over 65), but presumably, voters under 65 would be similarly supportive of a policy that would benefit themselves and their children directly.
Source: Data for Progress
It focuses debate on 'Health' which is an issue where voters have always trusted Labor over the Coalition
According to the ANU’s Trends in Australian Politicial Opinion study (based on the Australian Election Studies from 1987 - 2019), voters have always prefer the ALP's policy on health. And conversely, voters always prefer the Coalition’s policy on ‘management of the economy’.
Source: Screenshot from ANU Study
As you can see in the chart, the preferred party is consistent over time. These trends are consistent across countries (centre-left parties are typically considered better on health/education and centre-right parties are considered to be better on national security/the economy).
Voters are cross-pressured as they prefer some policies from Labor and some policies from the Coalition. The deciding factor in their vote is which issues are most salient and important.
For parties, the goal is to make their issues the most salient and relevant in the election. This is why the Coalition unethically sent out a text about an “illegal boat” on election day to get voters thinking about border security/immigration.
Adding ‘Dental to Medicare’ will give Labor an ethical way of focusing media and voter attention on Health policy. This will in turn lead to more voters for Labor.
Click here for Part 2.