This article continues our series on making Medicare Dental a reality and presents a timeline for
Policy development
Political messaging and
Ramp-up and roll out
Using an accelerated version of Grattan’s timeline (6 years vs 10 years) it will take until 2031 to achieve universal coverage (assuming the roll-out start in 2025).
This is quite slow and underscores the urgency of doing everything possible to speed up the implementation (to see if we can get it done sooner!).
As I wrote last time, the sooner Medicare Dental is universal, the more political protection it will have from a future LNP government who will likely try to scrap it.
Assuming that the Labor government will be in power for 6-9 years, we need to get the ball rolling on this policy ASAP.
So let’s get into it!
Timeline
Now:
Build the case for modifying Stage 3
Mar-23:
Begin consultation with the Australian Dental Association (ADA) to see if you can get their support for Medicare Dental
“We both want to work towards a situation where all Australians can have good dental health”
May-23:
Budget:
Announce an alternative to Stage 3 which will improve the budget by $10b+ per year and provide 98% of income earners with a tax cut. Our alternative is here (gives a $250 tax cut to 98% of tax-payers).
Jun-23:
Announce the following
"Because of the additional revenue we have from modifying Stage 3, the Federal Government is investigating how we can add Dental into Medicare.
We will roll out the program in phases over the coming years until everyone is covered. In the short term we will be working with universities and vocational education providers to make sure we're training enough dentists and dental technicians to give all Australian's the healthcare they deserve. "
This announcement will
Shift the conversation away from Stage 3
Demonstrate that the additional revenue from the Stage 3 alternative is “being spent on something worthwhile”
Come with an in-built answer to the question "How will you fund it?"
Communicate to the public that "When you pay taxes, good things happen"
Begin consultation with universities and TAFEs on ways to scale up training of dental professionals (identify methods by which they can quickly ramp up their existing programs and start new ones. Identify barriers and develop solutions)
Begin policy development
Define each phase of the roll-out (using the Filling the Gap report from the Grattan Institute as a starting point)
Policy design (treatments covered, price list, how to expand the public dental system)
Forecast demand and supply of dental services to build a suitable timeline for implementation
Design policies and funding required to ramp up existing dental education courses and start new ones
May-24:
Budget:
Announce additional higher education/TAFE funding and any other programs (e.g assistance for regional students, skilled migration) to increase the number of dental professionals
“These courses will give students skills that are in-demand and contribute to a happier, healthier Australia"
Announce that Phase 1 of Medicare Dental will begin in July 2025
Explain who will be covered and how it will work
Apr-25:
Take 'Medicare Dental' to the next Federal Election as one of 2-3 'big but simple' ideas for the next term of the Labor government
Popular, tangible and easy to understand policies, like this, will win votes and improve the effectiveness of door-knocking and media campaigns
By this point the policy details will have been developed so Labor will have a credible, considered plan for Medicare Dental
Force the Coalition to take a position on this issue and make it central to the campaign
“Can you trust the Coalition to protect Medicare and add dental?”
“Every time the Coalition is in government they cut funding to dental programs…and they’ll do it again”
ELECTION (May 2025)
Jul-25:
Phase 1 Roll-out begins (assuming the ALP win)
Post-election roll-out will mitigate any political damage from the inevitable teething issues
If similar to Grattan’s Phase 1, this Phase will cover ~7.7m people
Later*
Phase 2 Roll-out (9.5m people - inclusive of previous phase)
Probably able to roll-out prior to the 2028 election
Phase 3 Roll-out (12.1m people)
This phase covers all children
Ideally you would roll this out during Labor’s 2nd term of government as this is a policy that would benefit all families with children
If not possible, it could form a part of the 2028 campaign “Vote Labor so that all children are covered under Medicare Dental”
Phase 4 Roll-out (24.3m people)
This phase covers everyone
This phase could likely be used as a reason to vote Labor in the 2028 election “Vote Labor and we will finish expanding Medicare Dental so that all Australians are covered”
*The specific timeline for these activities will depend on the analysis that is done during the policy development phase.
What do you think? Sound plausible?